The next Billion dollar companies

  1. Health Sensors and IOT (Internet of Things)
  2. DNA and growing body parts
  3. AI and Robots including cars
  4. Space Travel
  5. Fintech, although it will go through a rapid commoditization process once the India Stack gets implemented in other countries.
  6. Crypto Currency (or a form of it). With Space Travel and possible settlement on Mars, a global distributed ledger will enable significant theft.  Imagine you knowing that Elon Musk is on his way to Mars and you are on ship with him.  As soon as his ship backs up the bitcoin Blockchain ledger and leaves earth orbit, you can then instruct your family on earth to sell all your bitcoins on Earth while you will still have the ability to sell them a second time onboard his ship or on Mars. Crypto as it stands currently maybe a step in the right direction but just a baby step IMHO.  It’s like the first generation cellphone, the big bulky motorola one (google it).  In our evolution, Currency was once livestock or grains or anything of practical use, then it became Gold (which initially was considered worthless by Aztecs as it was a soft metal that couldn’t be used for tools or weapons), then IOUs in form of paper / plastic.  The future of currency is sure to be Cyber in some form; hopefully blockchain but a future iteration of it.  Today the word “distributed blockchain” while technically correct, is an oxymoron in logical terms. Earlier the nature of currency was distributed.  You and I could exchange a dollar anywhere in the world.  With a “distributed ledger”, we need to be connected to one centralized network to make this transaction.  Only the internal working of that centralized network are distributed but money only becomes more centralized contrary to intention and nomenclature.
  7. Governance.  This is the biggest and I am highlighting it in Bold.  I was oblivious to this entire segment till I heard Nandan Nilekani (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nandan_Nilekani) at a recent invest india seminar organized by Prem Watsa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prem_Watsa) in Toronto.  I reach out with special thanks to Harveer Sidhu with IIFL private wealth and Mohammad Zakaria with Canada India Business Council who invited me there. If you an avid reader of my blog or a student of the markets, you will know about Elliott wave theory. I will not dwell into details here and they are not important for the understanding of this matter.  You can read more on it in my blog (http://malhotra.ca/index.php/2017/05/27/us-stock-market-2017/) if you have an interest in that topic.   Broadly, Elliott wave theory has the concept of (#1)Cycles, (#2)super cycles and (#3)Grand super cycles and many recursive layers of them.  Again, I will not dwell into details of the theory here but instead will focus on a matter that has never been explained before – which is the “why” of these cycles.  There are numerous articles on the factual W4’s – Who, What, When, Where.  But I couldn’t find one article on the 5th logical W of Why.   So here’s an explanation of why they happen – I believe that (#1)Cycles happen due to technology, economics, politics etc.   I believe that (#2)Super Cycles happen when humanity pushes the boundaries of it’s understanding of fundamentals of matter and this universe.   Understanding electrons for example was the start of a Super Cycle. We initially created a cycle of industrialization from it, then a semi-conductor revolution which fostered internet, social media, AR, VR and more. There then comes a day when incremental benefit from an electron will be limited.  I hope that before that happens, our scientists can discover something fundamental again for us to run another Super Cycle on – subspace communications, combating gravity – something  fundamental to the fabric of this universe.   (#3)Grand super cycles  in my opinion happen when humanity figures out a way to organize and govern ourselves.  For thousands of years we were all organized in kingdoms and governed by Kings (or Queens).  In the last 200 years or so, we found a mechanism of Democratic governance.  This change is so massive but usually underestimated due to how stable it is and therefore does not feel like a change. The earth for example, rotates at 1000 miles per hour and revolves around the sun at 67,000 miles per hour and we can’t feel that motion, yet when our car moves at  80 miles per hour, we can feel it very clearly.  Almost all cycles go through 3 important impulse phases.  Impulse Phase #1 – Some people stay in denial, the benefits of change are not visible to everyone.  Impulse Phase #2 – almost everyone is on board and progress picks up pace.  This is the time when the broadest and the most significant progress is made.  Impulse Phase #3 – at this point most benefits of this change have been absorbed, but speculators move on.  The “measured” pace of change is highest in this phase, steeper than even impulse phase #2 because this phase is speculative in nature. Usually this results in finally the bubble of speculation popping and markets returning back to the top of Impulse Phase #2 which was the top achieved out of tangible progress. I believe we are towards the end of Impulse Phase #1 of Democratic Governance. We need to start preparing systems and processes that can move us into the next Impulse Phase.  “India Stack” is a great example of such a system.  Imagine dealing with your Government as you deal with Amazon or Costco.  Prime delivery of everything you order – drivers license, health card, passport.  Quick redressal of all your complaints.  Allows you to rate it’s services and products.  Brings in competition to enhance quality and ratings.  Automated Recurring deliveries of all benefits. Sells and Buys everything for the benefit of the customer or member (Costco). A system of governance that works for you to maximize your wealth, your savings, your comfort, your benefits.

Here’s some food for thought => The per-capital national wealth for Canada is $ 208,000 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_wealth) whereas the per capita financial assets are only $ 63,261 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_financial_assets_per_capita ) which means that democracy is yet to liberate 2/3 of the wealth and therefore 2/3 the benefits.

What do you think ?  Can you compute the TAM (Total Addressable Market) of new Governance solutions ? Feel free to round it to the closest 1000 trillion 🙂

Please email me or mention in comments below if you have a startup in one of the above categories. I will be very happy to collaborate and support them.

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